Giro Stage 17 - bunch sprint ?

chatter coming from Italy is that snow may cause the tt route to be altered, just thought i would pass on that pearl of wisdom.

Hoping for a sprinters day today, after yesterdays fly by of the red arrows....

I've found that the crappy feeling I get after making bad transfers is more crappy than the crappy feeling I get after not making transfers that I should have made. So today, I do nothing.

surprised how many of us have gone for the sprint finish scenario.

I've brought in cav, nizzolo, mezgec. already had felline and di luca, i fancy felline to do well today if sprinters dont make the final.

I think its 50/50 for the cav's of this world to tag back on for the finish, after surely being dropped on the climb. But he's a 75% shot for the win if he does! so calculated gamble... too far down the rankings not to try something!

This is what I read about the final climb:

inrng wrote:

There’s the climb of Crosara, 5.3km and 6.8% average with max at 12%. The point to note here is that you can’t take the climb in isolation. The roads before are narrow and the descent is technical is too. So pacing a sprinter up is no easy task as it’ll be hard to control before and after the climb too.

and

inrng wrote:

The Scenario: some tipped Cavendish yesterday but I couldn’t see it. Glance at this stage and it looks like a sprint finish, albeit with a hill to mix things up. But now I’ve looked in more detail I’m less sure. The climb is so steep and narrow that if the bunch hits it full gas then the sprinters can get flushed out the back of the peloton like a bad case of dysentery. Crucially the twisting roads before the climb allow inventive teams to break the race up although whether OPQS and Cannondale consent is another matter.

Basically, much tougher climb than it appears and whether it comes down to a sprint all depends on whether the teams of Cav and Viviani are willing to really take hold of the race and keep it together.

oh shit don't like the sound of this-
That climb near the end is the Crosara, and is ranked category four. It is a 5.3km long climb, with an average gradient of 8.1 percent most of the way, before flatting out to an average of 3.1% near the top. There is once setion of up to 12 %, though.

backflipbedlem wrote:

...what do you think about Rubiano? ...

Well, he's finally out there!

Quote:

This group is apparently Maxim Belkov (Katusha), Miguel Rubiano (Androni),Gert Dockx (Lotto Beilsol), and Luke Durbridge (OGE). They are said to have gotten away in the first kilometer.

Break of 4 has 4:40 with the peloton being led by OPQS.

If nothing else, that suggests that Cav isn't entirely discounting a result today.

Yeah, it won't be until Friday that Santa claws his way back into contention. Ahem.

My team is:

Cavendish (for Nibali)
Belletti (for Uran)
Nizzolo (for Santambrogio)
Viviani (for Majka)
Mezgec (for Pirazzi)

Evans
Betancur
Garzelli
Chalapud

Dropped about 40 guaranteed points but banking on a sprint finish today or at least the sprinters racing for top ten placings.

Plan for tomorrow is to make another 4/5 transfers and bring back Nibali plus some climbers more suited to a TT (probably not Santa).

Wasted 2 transfers putting Gavazzi in and then having to 'tow' him out again.....did you see what I did there

Cav
Mezgec
Belletti-my wildcard
Nibali
Uran
Garzelli
Majka
Betancur
Pirazzi

Hope to god it's a sprint or my plan hits the fan!

After scribbling down on a bit of paper how many transfers I'm likely to have and use over the rest of the race I've made 5 today. Gone for a sprint (Cav +4 I won't name yet) and hope that the GC guys will keep their powder dry for tomorrow. My only worry is that with so many teams not having got anything from the race yet the last climb will be carnage and someone (Sanchez?) will get away.

Either way, hope that Cav wants the red jersey enough to sprint for minor placings.

In the end I have used 4 transfers leaving 5 for tomorrow...

CAVENDISH
NIZZOLO
MEZGEC
SANCHEZ
EVANS
BETANCUR
NIEMIEC
MAJKA
PELLIZOTTI

Sort of fancy DiLuca but team orders may make him play nursemaid to Santambrogio...

last time i called it as not a sprint, it was very much a sprint.

this time i'm calling it as a sprint.

Take note, people

used 5 of my 8 transfers

Evans
Betancur
Pirazzi
Chalapud

Cav
Nizzolo
Gatto
Sammy
Mezgec

As for tomorrow i'm stumped!!???

lol, 7 transfers and just seen its an uphill TT tomorrow, so do i keep my mountain goats for today, or ship them out n back again?
hmmm

Really have no idea what to do today.

I'd planned on making 5 transfers with a view to it being a sprint but everywhere I look they're saying a sprint is unlikely. So, do I stick with my original plan and bring in Cav +4 sprinters or do I chase the break or do I stick with the team that got me 179 points yesterday?

If the GC guys try to test each other again today on what is apparently a very tight and technical climb that's much harder than it's cat 4 categorisation then a sprint won't happen and it'll go the same way as yesterday. BUT if some of the sprinters teams want to keep it together will the GC guys be happy to take it easy ahead of tomorrow's potentially more important TT?

Argh!

8 transfers and no idea what to do with them...

Sort of wishy washy effort from me. I agree STEVESPRO wish I didn't have so many transfers it would make playing the game less time consuming at least.

Nibali
Niemeic
Betancur
Majka
Felline
Nizzolo
Mezgec
Pellizoti
Pirazzi

I will have 5 transfers for tomorrow though and I know what I want to do with them.

Shame the big climbs at the weekend are not going to happen spoiling a good finale.

Sprint sprint sprint!

Modolo
Cav
Felline
Mezgec
Nizzolo
Bak
Di Luca
Nibali
Betancur

Mmmm...Gatto worked hard yesterday to reduce Santambrogio's deficit...

Enrique has no idea how having so many banked transfers can cause so much stress...What a stupid place to put a hill on a so called flat stage....

May as well share mine. Fancy a breakaway to stay tomorrow, so no sprinters.

Nibali
Evans
Pirazzi
Betancur
Santambrogio
Felline
Marcato
Gatto
Canola

Some transfers banked, too.

The one difference is they won't have had the tough climbs earlier on, anyway heres my team to tackle tomorrow. It will either work, or it won't, but I do expect Felline and Nava to be ok and be at the finish either way. Cav was incase, and Mezgec as he is cheap and only replaced Di Luca (who I can only see being at the finish if its a sprint anyway). I also axed Nibali, Santambrogio and Uran

Cav
Mezgec
Felline
Navardauskas
Kangert
Pellizotti
Majka
Betancur
Evans

From what we saw today I doubt it. Haven't got a single sprinter, built for the TT with a couple of chances of a break/late attack for tomorrow. Left in Sammy for one last go!