Just Stop Oil begin slow cycling protests

It seems we're heading in the right direction but with a long way left to go.

Will be interesting to see how the date develops over the next few years. The UK's carbon footprint should decrease significantly over the next decade so I'd expect the date to respond.

Unfortunately the effects of greenhouse gases do not stop at our borders. I like the natty rejoinder but you'd also want to include the trends across the world and show that none of the increases in places like China and India etc have to do with energy and products going back to the UK.

Otherwise it's just "out of sight, out of mind".

Thing is, in our new cold war with China, we and the US, to end our reliance on the global manufactory that is the people's Republic, are meant to be making more of the general crap we all voraciously consume. So dragging back our global heating numbers. Won't happen mind, our stuff won't be much better, definitely not enough to justify the hugely increased end price to our price savvy consumer.

Weirdly looking at the bike, I like Hope, Exposure, Middlebury, Rohloff and Jones's, but I have always liked stuff that lasts and can be repaired.

Yes. It's why I've still got an old Galaxy.

Rohloff at least seem to emphasise longevity with care and maintenance. Stripping one wouldn't be a home workshop job for me though.

"Maintenance and repair" being two of the less sexy technology and industry sisters. Much less so than making and selling new stuff. Plenty of innovation and creativity there though, and potentially far more economic activity...

Currently we seem to be on a general path of exponentially increasing tech levels - with plummeting economic viability (or even possibility) for maintenance and repair by users or for third-party firms.

At least bikes started simple...

ktache wrote:

Thing is, in our new cold war with China, we and the US, to end our reliance on the global manufactory that is the people's Republic, are meant to be making more of the general crap we all voraciously consume.

But China's adding more Net New Renewables than a big chunk of the rest of the world put together.  (3xUS solar additions for example) plus most of the worlds Panels are made there.  There is a real possibility that China will have a less carbon dependent grid much faster than anyone realises.

Secret_squirrel wrote:

ktache wrote:

Thing is, in our new cold war with China, we and the US, to end our reliance on the global manufactory that is the people's Republic, are meant to be making more of the general crap we all voraciously consume.

But China's adding more Net New Renewables than a big chunk of the rest of the world put together.  (3xUS solar additions for example) plus most of the worlds Panels are made there.  There is a real possibility that China will have a less carbon dependent grid much faster than anyone realises.

I'd like to see figures on percentage of fossil fuel/green energy in China over the last 10 years to be convinced of that. It doesn't matter if the are being more renewable capacity than others if the are also building more carbon fueld capacity than others at the same time.

Until this data show a reducing trend we are not doing enough about climate warming. There are then all the other planetary boundaries to deal with. Alternatively do nothing and sit back and wait for it.

I'd certainly prefer to make a dignified exit myself - try not to leave the place in a mess.

Taking a longer view though - life's feedback loops include running out of resources.  Bad for the individuals - and possibly the consequences of a species' actions might radically reduce its own numbers if not make itself extinct.

However a crisis for some can be opportunity for others.  Bacteria and other organisms have been found living on all kinds of human by-products - concrete, metal (e.g. the Titanic).  Not aware of anything which eats a wide range of human-generated polymers yet though.

The history of life on earth contains examples of some organism / collection of organisms coming along and dramatically changing the environment (Great oxidation event, Cambrian substrate revolution etc).

Of course given the human abilities of foresight, cooperation, self-regulation and trophic and environmental flexiblity we might be able to avoid this for a bit.  However it's entirely possible that it might require societies to change in ways which many would be uncomfortable with and may then not be stable against outside influences.

Ask and ye shall receive.

"In 2020 total greenhouse gas emissions associated with UK consumption directly by households were 21 per cent lower than in 1996".

Offshoring actually increased our carbon emissions until 2007 when a nice big recession and (later) some decent policies combined to start decreasing them. They've been falling reasonably consistently since 2012 despite a population that is growing quite quickly.

Interesting! Thanks - we love a graph here! (Mostly...) Where are those from, out of interest?

Couple of notable points there. A recession or pandemic appears to help a lot! It is interesting the UK-produced goods totals have come down but overseas have not increased. A common pattern in human resource use is that as one thing becomes less "expensive" in some way (maybe a process becomes more efficient) there is increased use ("what our ancestors considered luxuries we consider necessities") and overall there's not much change.

Otherwise - a picture of little change since 1996!
We do keep hearing that heating and transport are still on the possible "to do" list though.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uks-carbon-footprint/carbon-foo...

I'd hardly call a 21% drop "little change" especially considering the increase in population.

Heating will be the big one. Electrification is relatively easy for transport and progressing well. For heating it's going to be a big challenge.

Rich_cb wrote:

I'd hardly call a 21% drop "little change" especially considering the increase in population.

I was specifically referring to all the parts *apart* from the "UK produced goods / services" which haven't changed much at all. The reduction in the UK- produced goods part is probably positive of course.

Apologies.

I've been reading that China will hit peak carbon emissions in the next few years and as the source of much of our stuff that can only be good for global efforts to reduce emissions.

We could just buy less stuff of course...

Internet; I should have been clearer!

Rich_cb wrote:

We could just buy less stuff of course...

What are you, some kind of Cynic?

The simplest, most obvious solutions can be the hardest or most difficult to implement it seems.

Owd Big 'Ead wrote:

Its weird how the lefties on here want everything to change until it doesn't suit them.

Lefties? Aren't Lefties supposed to be the ones that want change, to make things better for everyone and the ones who are protesting and cycling slowly, glueing themselves to things and making a fuss? 

I thought it was the Righties/Conservatives/conservatives that only do things that suit them? Perhaps I'm wrong here.

Proud to be a Woke Lefty member of The Blob.

MattieKempy wrote:

Owd Big 'Ead wrote:

Its weird how the lefties on here want everything to change until it doesn't suit them.

Lefties? Aren't Lefties supposed to be the ones that want change, to make things better for everyone and the ones who are protesting and cycling slowly, glueing themselves to things and making a fuss? 

I thought it was the Righties/Conservatives/conservatives that only do things that suit them? Perhaps I'm wrong here.

Proud to be a Woke Lefty member of The Blob.

Do you eat tofu and read the Grauniad?

Secret_squirrel wrote:

I wish JSO would JFO. 

I admire their passion, I think their confrontational and attention seeking stance is more likely to alienate people than garner support.

If they didn't demand attention, they'd be ignored like all the other environmental protesters over the last sixty years or so.

Time for a bad analogy - imagine a large house that was starting to catch on fire and the fire brigade turn up and attempt to get people to evacuate. Some of the residents complain that the fire brigade are making too much noise and they're not going to get people on their side with such attention seeking behaviour. Thus the residents sit smugly knowing that they're right to dismiss the fire brigade as they're not going about the evacuation in the "correct" manner with all their shouting and bell ringing etc. Of course, they dismissed all about the more gentle warnings that the fire brigade gave during their last inspection - "don't store those newspapers next to that oil heater or they could catch fire". One resident responded to the warning with "don't worry, we've got a plan to move those newspapers away from the fire during the next twenty to thirty years, so stop being so alarmist".

You're right about it being a bad anology.

Beat me to it! My immediate reaction too!

.

If environmental protestors have been "ignored" why do we have laws obliging the government to work towards net zero?

Why have we almost eradicated coal fired electricity generation?

Why have we spent billions subsidising renewable energy?

I could go on but the evidence is pretty clear that far from being "ignored" environmental activists have achieved fantastic success not just in the UK but globally.

If JSO's aims were actually achievable in a significantly different timescale to the current legally mandated one I'd support their cause if not their methods. As it is I support neither.

"If JSO's aims were actually achievable in a significantly different timescale to the current legally mandated one I'd support their cause"

What do you think JSO's aims actually are? I think that their name may be misleading, as their declared aim is for the government to halt new licences for the expolration of oil and other fossil fuels in the UK. It sounds like something that the PM could sign off this afternoon, if he cared to. 

They are not protesting beacuse of what is happening already, even if they may have a right to. They are protesting the govenment's apparent willingness to 'add more fuel to the (climate) fire'.

If we stopped North Sea oil and gas exploration then we'd simply import more gas and oil. This would worsen our balance of trade and weaken our economy.

The increase in imports would mean more production in areas with terrible environmental records. Look up Niger Delta oil spills (and the associated child mortality) or Tajikistan gas flaring as examples.

OPEC+ have the capacity to increase or decrease production in order to achieve target global prices so even if JSO achieved a complete halt on North Sea operations we wouldn't even get a decrease in fossil fuel use driven by a higher price as, post Ukraine, gas prices are already set by LNG import prices.

In short, stopping North Sea extraction would lead to a weaker economy, a lower tax take and more environmental harm globally. It would have little or no impact on overall fossil fuel use.

Where do I sign up...

"This would worsen our balance of trade and weaken our economy."

Awwww...

It's not like the economy funds anything which we value...

We wouldn't need to increase our imports of fossil fuels unless a.) our current UK provided FFs were running out, and/or b.) we were increasing our reliance on FFs. 

The answer to a.) is unclear. According to media sources were only had 15 years of fuel left for the last 30 years, and only 5 years left for the last 10, but worldwide oil reserves are so plentiful that even using just a fraction of them would likley lead to a 2 degree rise in global annual mean temperature. 

for b.), I sincerely hope that is not the case. 

I think that mass immigration for areas of the planet that become unlivable, and food shortages caused by droughts/floods/fires may have more of an impact on our economy than the alternative.

All oil and gas fields have a finite lifespan.

"The UK Oil and Gas Authority projected in September 2021 that UK production of natural gas would decline from 34.9 bcm in 2020 to 8.9 bcm in 2035."

We're using far fewer FFs than we were but we're going to be using them for a long time yet. We can either use our own and keep some of the monetary benefit or we can use someone else's and send the money abroad.

Rich_cb wrote:

If environmental protestors have been "ignored" why do we have laws obliging the government to work towards net zero? Why have we almost eradicated coal fired electricity generation? Why have we spent billions subsidising renewable energy? I could go on but the evidence is pretty clear that far from being "ignored" environmental activists have achieved fantastic success not just in the UK but globally. If JSO's aims were actually achievable in a significantly different timescale to the current legally mandated one I'd support their cause if not their methods. As it is I support neither.

Yes, governments are making noises about transitioning to net zero out of one side of their mouths and also increasing tax breaks for investing more money into drilling the North Sea so that we can burn even more oil. From my bad analogy, it's the residents saying that yes, they're slowly moving paper away from the fire, so they're not ignoring the fire brigade, but in fact they're making deals to put even more paper next to the fire.

You may be happy with the current state of the world's climate and what's going to happen, but the writing's on the wall and leaders don't care as they're just desperately trying to wring as much money out of oil as they can for their mates. JSO are making a stand and declaring that we have to stop this climate destroying money grab.

As an example of how corrupt our system is when dealing with climate issues: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/07/uae-oil-firm-cop28-climate-summit-emails-sultan-al-jaber-adnoc

Oh look, another example of renewables being ignored in favour of oil: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/09/from-north-sea-revival-to-renewables-aberdeen-sees-corporate-interests-triumph

Quote:

In 2021 the International Energy Agency calculated that the world could afford no new fossil fuel exploration if the world wanted to stay within safe limits of global warming. The 6bn barrels of oil and gas that officials have calculated could be profitably extracted from the North Sea would release 2.5bn tonnes of CO2 – seven times the UK’s annual emissions.

and

Quote:

Michael Lazarus, the senior scientist tasked with updating the UN Environment Programme’s assessment of oil, gas and coal production plans agrees with Dalhuijsen. “Governments are planning twice the amount of production of fossil fuels that is consistent with a 1.5C pathway,” he says on a video call from his home in Seattle. “If they’re serious about meeting their climate pledges – and the UK has a very ambitious one – they need to put measures in place for a decline in production. This goes in the opposite direction. It further puts climate goals at risk.”

For an update on how well we are managing CO2 levels: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/

Quote:

The indicators show that human-induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] ∘C averaged over the 2013–2022 decade and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] ∘C in 2022. Over the 2013–2022 period, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ∘C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate.

Has the UK's record on decarbonisation been perfect? No.

Has it been amongst the best in the world (for similar economies)? Yes.

Perfection is the enemy of good.

We're decarbonising rapidly in the UK and that's projected to continue, why rock the boat by making Net Zero a partisan political issue? JSO are pushing Net Zero into the culture wars arena, that's not going to help.