Can we already predict what's about to hit the US bike industry amid Trump’s tariff trade war? Why looking to Russia might provide some answers

Russia has experienced growing isolationism on the world stage since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, with Western sanctions having a huge impact on the country’s economy. Like most other sectors, the once burgeoning bike industry has been severely affected. 

Prior to the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, cycling was one of the fastest-growing segments in the whole outdoor activity sector in Russia, with annual growth rates of between 7-8%. Still, the beginning of Russia/Ukraine war put an end to hopes for further growth in the industry, at least at the same pace.  

What does all this have to do with Trump’s tariffs? Well, from what we know so far about what’s happened to the Russian cycling sector, there are plenty of parallels that can be drawn. As we explain in greater detail below, price rises, decreased trade with other nations and an increase in domestic manufacturing have already happened in Russia, and some (mostly negative) predictions have been made about what’s in store for the US bike industry along these same lines: Giant is predicting its US prices might have to increase by 50%, and Tern Bicycles says its expenses could increase by up to 4000% because of the far higher cost to bring parts into North America from the Far East. 

Since the invasion, it has been difficult to get a window into any aspect of Russian life; so considering the predicted worldwide economic strife to come, hopefully you will find this dissection of the Russian bike market insightful. Although some political discussion is inevitable – because there are obvious political reasons why the Russian economy is currently facing severe challenges – we’re talking bikes and hard stats about the Russian bike industry here. 

Shortages, price rises and sanctions

Russian bike factory (credit: Stels)

Perhaps the biggest problems currently facing the Russian bike market are a shortage of bikes, and sharp price rises for existing ranges. After 24 February 2022, many Western bike brands decided to leave Russia, such as Trek, Specialized, Scott, Merida, Cube, and many more. 

The most complex situation is observed in the big cities, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the demand for bikes has been traditionally higher, and where the existing stocks of imported bicycles in Russia are almost exhausted.

According to data from the Russian analyst agency RBC, prior to February 2022 the Russian bicycle market exceeded 3 million units a year in volume terms, similar numbers to the UK during the pandemic boom and double the number of UK units sold in 2024. Of these, two thirds of those 3 million sold in Russia were imported models.

According to data from the Russian Ministry of Trade, prices increased between 15-30% depending on the model; although most independent analysts believe this was significantly more, closer to 60%. In 2025, prices of bikes in Russia continue to increase. The major reasons for this are high inflation rates and logistical difficulties.

One of the ways to deal with the possible shortage is increasing supplies of Western bikes via parallel imports, despite the fact that the final cost of such items is usually several times higher than their real market value. Additionally, in recent months the control from Western regulators and bike manufacturers for such imports via countries such as Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan have significantly tightened, which seriously complicated further supplies. Therefore, Western bike imports are currently replaced by supplies from alternative, 'friendlier' countries such as South Africa. 

Format road bike (credit: Format)

According to experts, because of their decreased purchasing power many locals have switched to more affordable domestic models from the likes of Stinger, Stels, and Format. Bikes from these Russian brands can cost around RUB 20,000 (£~183) or even lower.

These larger bike brands, however, still use parts of foreign origin throughout their range, with parts supplied primarily from Taiwan and EU countries. 

While Western sanctions did not affect the supplies of bikes along with their components and spare parts to Russia, there are serious problems with payments for such imports, as most Russian banks are on a sanctions list from the EU and the US.

Some Russian dealers have been able to switch to supplies from China, but in recent weeks they have also been faced with serious problems making transactions in this country due to the refusal of some major Chinese banks to conduct their transactions for the purchases of these products (even in yuan). For example, in February, the Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank, the main Chinese bank for Russian bike producers and exporters, announced the suspension of all transactions. In the meantime, almost the same situation is observed in Turkey.

Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets, one of Russia’s leading analyst agencies in the field of bikes, has confirmed the current shortage of bikes in Russia, also mentioning existing problems in manufacturing within the territory of Russia. He also considers China as one of the possible options to close the existing shortage with bikes and their spare parts in the domestic market despite the current challenges. 

“There will also be difficulties with the production of bicycles in Russia due to sanctions and disruption of supply chains", said Deev.

"In this regard, particular hopes are put on the co-operation with China, primarily in regard of component supplies, as well as neighbouring Belarus."

Russia has always been one of largest importers of Chinese bicycles, along with the US, Chile, and Canada. There is a possibility that it becomes the largest importer overall by the end of 2025.

As Nikita Makov, a well-known Russian expert in the field of bikes and head of the Russian bike analyst agency Twentysix, said in an interview with the Russian Kommersant business paper, the current state of the bike industry in Russia can be likened to 'repartition': the redistribution of land by the community, as practised by the Russian Empire.

Nikita Makov commented:

"As Russia traditionally imports many bikes from China and Taiwan, many Taiwanese factories currently simply do not want to work with Russia amid the fears of secondary sanctions.

"The problem is not so much in the brands, but in factories. We lost such brands as GT Bicycles, which was one of the largest brands in our market. There are problems with Merida. And now distributors are looking for something to stock their stores with. We bring a lot of new Chinese brands, as well as bicycles from South Africa."

Makov, however, believes there will be no acute shortage of bikes in Russia, as local demand for them has also fallen due to Western sanctions and the lower purchasing power of local customers. He also believes that Russian cyclists will have to all but forget about the foreign brands they were used to seeing for the next ten to twenty years. 

An opportunity for domestic producers

Stels bike factory 2 (credit: Stels)

Still, some local analysts believe the exodus of Western brands should provide a good chance to domestic bike manufacturers to increase their share in the local market.

So far, some of leading Russian bike brands have announced their plans to expand production and sales. For example, in the city of Perm in Russia's Ural region, local bike manufacturer Forward recently confirmed its plans to revive the production of an iconic Soviet bike brand, Kama. The Kama brand was launched in the USSR in the middle of 1970s, and was one of the most popular city bikes in the Soviet Union. It is planned that this year at least 10,000 units will be produced, priced at around RUB 10,000 (~£92).

According to local experts, the current weak rouble and the absence of foreign competitors will allow Russian bike manufacturers to expand in the domestic market, while, according to some estimates, their share already exceeds 70% in volume terms.

Moscow and its surrounding area accounts for approximately 70-80% of the bike market in volume terms. At the same time, in value terms their share is lower, being estimated at about 50%. That could be also explained by the existing stocks of some expensive Western models, which are in higher demand in Moscow compared to other regions of Russia with less purchasing power.

Format hybrid bike (credit: Format Bikes)

So, to address the question at the top of this article once more: is what has already happened to the Russian bike industry about to happen in the US? The reasons for the disruption are obviously very different, and the US is highly unlikely to face logistical issues due to economic sanctions like the Russian bike industry has had to deal with any time soon; but the symptoms of what has occurred in Russia – and what has been predicted to happen in the US – draw plenty of parallels: isolationism on the world stage, manufacturers from abroad pulling out, and much higher prices on what is left to sell.

The president appears to suggest that his tariff policy is a long game, that will boost manufacturing in the US as the nation begins to rely less on foreign imports. While Russian companies that used to sell imported bikes almost certainly wouldn’t have wished for the situation they find themselves in now, it could be argued that it has led to the expansion of Russian brands and more homegrown manufacturing – and relying less on foreign imports while boosting production in the US are key arguments for the imposition of tariffs by Trump's administration.

It doesn’t look like Russian sanctions are going to end any time soon, but increased trading with China and other ‘friendly’ nations might boost the Russian bike industry further. As the US government has imposed tariffs on almost every developed nation on earth, finding friendly trading partners might prove even more difficult than it has for Russia if compromises aren’t made.