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I can see some drivers keeping their precious fuel, once finally obtained, for only the most essential journeys.

The later bits of the fuel protests were a commuting cyclist heaven, not quite the 70's Sunday roads of early lockdown, but getting there.

The thing about panic buying is that you are foolish if you don't get in there early.

And maybe if the desire to keep tanks full continues for any length of time, causing shortages at the pump, which a shortage of fuel delivery drivers will only exasserbate, maybe a reduction of the heavyness of some of our heavy right footed drivers, a closer adoption of the more fuel efficient speed limit, and maybe, with fingers crossed, less pointless overtaking while approaching queues of traffic or red lights.  Though of course that would mean looking beyond the cyclist, which would mean adopting a completely different way of seeing...

I was convinced theyd already made the announcement the moment they said they werent using Castelli anymore

So you're worried about the chain supply chain?

You called? Oh, too many for you.

OnTheRopes wrote:

All very well being smug about fuel shortages until we run out of food, oh yeh and bike spares too.

Best ensure that fuel supplies are directed to where they're needed most - eg emergency services, public transport, and supply chain

The rest of us perhaps need to adapt and survive...

Just so long as my aircraft is refuelled for my flight to Majorca tomorrow 

OnTheRopes wrote:

Just so long as my aircraft is refuelled for my flight to Majorca tomorrow 

Of course, an essential service!

Captain Badger wrote:

OnTheRopes wrote:

All very well being smug about fuel shortages until we run out of food, oh yeh and bike spares too.

Best ensure that fuel supplies are directed to where they're needed most - eg emergency services, public transport, and supply chain

The rest of us perhaps need to adapt and survive...

supply chain for what? e.g. is it more importnt that essential workers have fuel to get to work (I know many could chose to cycle) or that supermarkets are able to maintain a plentiful supply of bottled water, soft drinks and alcohol?

wycombewheeler wrote:

Captain Badger wrote:

OnTheRopes wrote:

All very well being smug about fuel shortages until we run out of food, oh yeh and bike spares too.

Best ensure that fuel supplies are directed to where they're needed most - eg emergency services, public transport, and supply chain

The rest of us perhaps need to adapt and survive...

supply chain for what? e.g. is it more importnt that essential workers have fuel to get to work (I know many could chose to cycle) or that supermarkets are able to maintain a plentiful supply of bottled water, soft drinks and alcohol?

Indeed, a fascinating question.

Stock up on roadkill while you can.

Mungecrundle wrote:

Stock up on roadkill while you can.

Rude...

I think the Govt's core problem here, when they are telling everyone "Don't Panic!", is that they have told so many lies so many times that nobody actually believes them any more; to the point where when they are saying "Don't worry, everything will be fine" you know we're probably facing an Extinction Level Event...

OnTheRopes wrote:

All very well being smug about fuel shortages until we run out of food, oh yeh and bike spares too.

What fuel shortage? There isn't one , just a delivery problem. A few petrol stations didn't get deliveries yesterday, it was poorly reported, and now people are panic buying. Christ on a bike, what is the world coming to?

Even in normal times we are not far from draining the system of fuel.

All UK refineries are operating well below maximum throughput as demand has been lower than normal and margins extremely poor.  Therefore there is no shortage of fuel available and capacity that can be brought on.

The problem is that there is far more 'storage' of fuel available in vehicles than in refineries and depots.  If we assume that the average car fuel tank is 50% full (probably an overestimate) then if a significant number of people fill up 'just in case', which is more accurate than panic buying, then the supply chain will be disrupted hugely leading to local shortages.

Throw in driver shortages and we are not far away from local supply issues.  I would expect them to be very short lived though.  As once you have filled yoiur car, you can't fill it twice.

Our whole supply chain for everything has been based on "Just In Time" for a long time. With the driver shortages, this can not happen at the moment. Factories will stop, there will be shortages on the shop shelves. It's caused in part by the problems with ocean freight, but mostly due to lack of drivers. As a Freight Forwarder, I have seen this 1st hand. I am struggling to get things collected, and when I can the prices have trippled. Poor driver facilities have stopped Brits wanting to work in haulage, and we've got by relying on Eastern Europeans who are prepared to put up with it. Until we start catering properly for drivers at service stations, and elsewhere, it's not going to get better, unless you raise salaries significantly. The lack of infrastructure for drivers is endemic here, and so much worse than the rest of Europe. I know Truckers are not a cyclists favourite group, but we can't live without them.

Pyro Tim wrote:

Our whole supply chain for everything has been based on "Just In Time" for a long time. With the driver shortages, this can not happen at the moment. Factories will stop, there will be shortages on the shop shelves. It's caused in part by the problems with ocean freight, but mostly due to lack of drivers. As a Freight Forwarder, I have seen this 1st hand. I am struggling to get things collected, and when I can the prices have trippled. Poor driver facilities have stopped Brits wanting to work in haulage, and we've got by relying on Eastern Europeans who are prepared to put up with it. Until we start catering properly for drivers at service stations, and elsewhere, it's not going to get better, unless you raise salaries significantly. The lack of infrastructure for drivers is endemic here, and so much worse than the rest of Europe. I know Truckers are not a cyclists favourite group, but we can't live without them.

Sounds like we need to build in a bit of slack into our supply chains. I don't know if the numbers would support it, but I suspect that just-in-time logistics is assuming that rare disruptive events that cause these kinds of issues are actually rarer and more costly than they've allowed for. However, the competition between companies probably won't allow a company to buck the trend and spend more on resilience as they'd end up charging more.

Even though there's the problems with truck drivers killing cyclists, I'd much rather that the drivers got paid a decent salary to encourage more professionalism and higher skill levels (I think of it as a skilled profession). Also, we need to remove lots of cars off the roads to make it easier and quicker for trucks to get around. Like you say, they're important to all of us.

hawkinspeter wrote:

 

Sounds like we need to build in a bit of slack into our supply chains. I don't know if the numbers would support it, but I suspect that just-in-time logistics is assuming that rare disruptive events that cause these kinds of issues are actually rarer and more costly than they've allowed for. However, the competition between companies probably won't allow a company to buck the trend and spend more on resilience as they'd end up charging more.

Even though there's the problems with truck drivers killing cyclists, I'd much rather that the drivers got paid a decent salary to encourage more professionalism and higher skill levels (I think of it as a skilled profession). Also, we need to remove lots of cars off the roads to make it easier and quicker for trucks to get around. Like you say, they're important to all of us.

The trouble is, that in normal times when manufacturers can get what they need 'just in time' those that chose to do so will have a competitive edge over that that choose to keep x weeks worth of parts to ensure manufacture is not interupted. particularly when parts are sizable and require a lot of storage space.

wycombewheeler wrote:

The trouble is, that in normal times when manufacturers can get what they need 'just in time' those that chose to do so will have a competitive edge over that that choose to keep x weeks worth of parts to ensure manufacture is not interupted. particularly when parts are sizable and require a lot of storage space.

Conversely, they'd get a big competitive advantage whenever the supply chain does have a breakdown which I'd suspect is going to happen more often with the climate catastrophe etc.

hawkinspeter wrote:

wycombewheeler wrote:

The trouble is, that in normal times when manufacturers can get what they need 'just in time' those that chose to do so will have a competitive edge over that that choose to keep x weeks worth of parts to ensure manufacture is not interupted. particularly when parts are sizable and require a lot of storage space.

Conversely, they'd get a big competitive advantage whenever the supply chain does have a breakdown which I'd suspect is going to happen more often with the climate catastrophe etc.

yes, those companies who have been carrying the higher costs of storage facilities for the past 15 years, will have an advantage now where their rivals are disrupted.

Providing they are still in business.

wycombewheeler wrote:

yes, those companies who have been carrying the higher costs of storage facilities for the past 15 years, will have an advantage now where their rivals are disrupted.

Providing they are still in business.

It's like gambling - do you go for the small, frequent wins or hold out for the larger, "rare" wins? Maybe now some firms will pivot from just-in-time to a-little-before-time.

Sniffer wrote:

If we assume that the average car fuel tank is 50% full (probably an overestimate) then if a significant number of people fill up 'just in case', which is more accurate than panic buying, then the supply chain will be disrupted hugely leading to local shortages.

probably an underestimate, there will be some people who filled up just before getting home, with a tank 100% full, but no people with tanks at 0% as they would be stranded by the roadside.

Ignoring those that routinely do not fill up their tank, because of cash flow constraints, as these people will not be rushing out to fill up anyway, as they can't affoord to.

"just in case" of what? just in case of fuel stations running out? this is the very defition of panic buying. And does not help me when I need to transport teenager and all stuff to university at the other end of the country this weekend.